Disney has pulled the plug on director Gore Verbinski's $250 million "The Lone Ranger" and is demanding tens of millions of dollars in budget cuts.
Based solely on Verbinski's record with Disney's "Pirate of the Caribbean" franchise, one might wonder why Disney is so worried. Didn't the first three films directed by Verbinski gross a combined $2.6 billion?
And don't forget that actor Johnny Depp is set to star as the Lone Ranger's companion Tonto. Depp's last two films with Disney--"Alice in Wonderland" in 2010 and "Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides" this year--each grossed more than $1 billion at the worldwide box office.
Looking at the ever-increasing budgets of the first three "Pirates" films--$140 million, $225 million and $300 million--it's understandable that the studio might be concerned with another $250 million project. And since Depp isn't portraying the lead character here, perhaps his star power may not provide quite the bang (no actor has been named to play the Lone Ranger).
Mega-producer Jerry Bruckheimer is also attached, as he has been with all four "Pirates" films. But he also helped deliver two less-than-stellar box office results to Disney last summer with "Prince of Persia" and "The Sorcerer's Apprentice."
In the end, however, the decision to take a step back--and perhaps cut their losses altogether--has nothing to do with Verbinski, Depp or Bruckheimer. It has everything to do with the fact that "The Lone Ranger" is a western.
Big-budgeted blockbusters and westerns are not usually spoken with the same breath. And for good reason.
This summer has already seen the box office flop of "Cowboys & Aliens," which boasted the star power of Harrison Ford and Daniel Craig along with "Iron Man" director Jon Favreau. After three weeks at the box office, the film has grossed only $83 million on a budget of $163 million, according to Box Office Mojo.
Looking historically, the highest grossing western--not taking into account for inflation--was 1990's "Dances with Wolves," with $184 million at the domestic box office ($424 million worldwide). Last year's Oscar-nominated "True Grit" is in second with $171 million ($250 million worldwide). They accomplished this on budgets of $22 million and $38 million respectively.
Verbinski's animated "Rango," which features Depp's voice, is third with $123 million domestically ($242 million worldwide).
The next four on the list are all from the 1990s and include "Back to the Future Part III." It should also say something that they are followed by "Cowboys & Aliens" at number eight.
As for big-budget westerns, 1999's "Wild Wild Western" was produced for $170 million and only grossed $113 million domestically, good for number four on the all-time western list. It did earn another $108 million worldwide, for a total of $222 million, but it was still a major bust.
Highest Grossing Westerns at the Domestic Box Office
1. "Dances with Wolves" (1990) - $184 million
2. "True Grit" (2010) - $171 million
3. "Rango" (2011) - $123 million
4. "Wild Wild West" (1999) - $113 million
5. "Maverick" (1994) - $101 million
6. "Unforgiven" (1992) - $101 million
7. "Back to the Future Part III" (1990) - $87 million
8. "Cowboys & Aliens" (2011) - $83 million
9. "Brokeback Mountain" (2005) - $83 million
10. "Open Range" (2003) - $53 million
Speaking of worldwide grosses, if westerns don't bring the big bucks here in the U.S., they do even worse overseas. With budgets soaring past $200 million, movies must cultivate foreign markets to be profitable. Among the five highest grossing films so far this year worldwide, only "Fast Five" earned more than a third of its money domestically.
According to The Hollywood Reporter, even if Verbinski cuts the budget down to $220 million--which seems to be Disney's goal at this point--"The Lone Ranger" would need to gross somewhere in the neighborhood of $800 million worldwide to recoup its costs, once promotional budgets and backend deals for Verbinski, Depp and Bruckheimer are factored in. That seems a nice round number, so I'll stick with it for the following analysis.
First of all, it must be pointed out that only 30 films have grossed $800 million or more worldwide. Compounding matters, since only 11 movies have ever grossed more than $400 million at the domestic box office, "The Lone Ranger" will have to get the majority of its money overseas.
And that brings us back to the fact that westerns simply don't do that well outside the U.S.
Highest Grossing Westerns at the Domestic Box Office
(Domestic Gross as a Percentage of Worldwide Gross)
1. "Dances with Wolves" (1990) - 43.6%
2. "True Grit" (2010) - 68.2%
3. "Rango" (2011) - 50.8%
4. "Wild Wild West" (1999) - 51.2%
5. "Maverick" (1994) - 55.5%
6. "Unforgiven" (1992) - 63.9%
7. "Back to the Future Part III" (1990) - 35.9%
8. "Cowboys & Aliens" (2011) - 90.5%*
9. "Brokeback Mountain" (2005) - 46.6%
10. "Open Range" (2003) - 85.6%
*Cowboys & Aliens has not yet opened in most overseas markets yet.
With the exception of "Back to the Future Part III," which was an established comedy franchise long before Marty McFly landed in the Old West, not one of the top 10 earned less than 43 percent of its total gross at the domestic box office.
Compare that with the highest grossing films of 2011 so far, of which only three earned a total of $800 million.
Highest Grossing Films of 2011 at the Worldwide Box Office
(Domestic Gross as a Percentage of Worldwide Gross)
1. "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2" ($1.217 billion) - 29.5%
2. "Transformers: Dark of the Moon" ($1.082 billion) - 32.1%
3. "Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides" ($1.038 billion) - 23.1%
4. "Kung Fu Panda 2" ($616 million) - 26.5%
5. "Fast Five" ($605 million) - 34.7%
The average domestic gross percentage among the top 10 westerns--excluding "Cowboys & Aliens"--is 55.7 percent. If you don't include "Back to the Future," that jumps to 58.18 percent.
Among the highest grossing films of 2011, the average was 29.18 percent. (And just so I'm not accused of comparing apples to oranges, a list of the top five grossing films of 2011 at the domestic box office replaces "Kung Fu Panda 2" with "The Hangover Part II," which had an above average domestic percentage of 43.8 percent. Even if you factored that in, the average percentage of worldwide box office to domestic box office is 32.64 percent.)
If "The Lone Ranger" kept to the top grossing western average of 55.7 percent, it would need to gross $445.6 million at the domestic box office to reach a total of $800 million worldwide, which would make it the fifth highest grossing domestic film in history behind "Avatar," "Titanic," "The Dark Knight" and "Star Wars." It would also be $261 million more than the highest grossing western of all time.
And don't forget that six of the top 10 grossing films domestically and seven of the top 10 worldwide are sequels, something "The Lone Ranger" cannot boast.
Unless "The Lone Ranger" is able to break multiple records by a lot, a $220 million-plus western simply doesn't make sense, despite the personnel involved.
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| "At World's End" grossed $963 million. |
And don't forget that actor Johnny Depp is set to star as the Lone Ranger's companion Tonto. Depp's last two films with Disney--"Alice in Wonderland" in 2010 and "Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides" this year--each grossed more than $1 billion at the worldwide box office.
Looking at the ever-increasing budgets of the first three "Pirates" films--$140 million, $225 million and $300 million--it's understandable that the studio might be concerned with another $250 million project. And since Depp isn't portraying the lead character here, perhaps his star power may not provide quite the bang (no actor has been named to play the Lone Ranger).
Mega-producer Jerry Bruckheimer is also attached, as he has been with all four "Pirates" films. But he also helped deliver two less-than-stellar box office results to Disney last summer with "Prince of Persia" and "The Sorcerer's Apprentice."
In the end, however, the decision to take a step back--and perhaps cut their losses altogether--has nothing to do with Verbinski, Depp or Bruckheimer. It has everything to do with the fact that "The Lone Ranger" is a western.
Big-budgeted blockbusters and westerns are not usually spoken with the same breath. And for good reason.
This summer has already seen the box office flop of "Cowboys & Aliens," which boasted the star power of Harrison Ford and Daniel Craig along with "Iron Man" director Jon Favreau. After three weeks at the box office, the film has grossed only $83 million on a budget of $163 million, according to Box Office Mojo.
Looking historically, the highest grossing western--not taking into account for inflation--was 1990's "Dances with Wolves," with $184 million at the domestic box office ($424 million worldwide). Last year's Oscar-nominated "True Grit" is in second with $171 million ($250 million worldwide). They accomplished this on budgets of $22 million and $38 million respectively.
Verbinski's animated "Rango," which features Depp's voice, is third with $123 million domestically ($242 million worldwide).
The next four on the list are all from the 1990s and include "Back to the Future Part III." It should also say something that they are followed by "Cowboys & Aliens" at number eight.
As for big-budget westerns, 1999's "Wild Wild Western" was produced for $170 million and only grossed $113 million domestically, good for number four on the all-time western list. It did earn another $108 million worldwide, for a total of $222 million, but it was still a major bust.
Highest Grossing Westerns at the Domestic Box Office
1. "Dances with Wolves" (1990) - $184 million
2. "True Grit" (2010) - $171 million
3. "Rango" (2011) - $123 million
4. "Wild Wild West" (1999) - $113 million
5. "Maverick" (1994) - $101 million
6. "Unforgiven" (1992) - $101 million
7. "Back to the Future Part III" (1990) - $87 million
8. "Cowboys & Aliens" (2011) - $83 million
9. "Brokeback Mountain" (2005) - $83 million
10. "Open Range" (2003) - $53 million
Speaking of worldwide grosses, if westerns don't bring the big bucks here in the U.S., they do even worse overseas. With budgets soaring past $200 million, movies must cultivate foreign markets to be profitable. Among the five highest grossing films so far this year worldwide, only "Fast Five" earned more than a third of its money domestically.
According to The Hollywood Reporter, even if Verbinski cuts the budget down to $220 million--which seems to be Disney's goal at this point--"The Lone Ranger" would need to gross somewhere in the neighborhood of $800 million worldwide to recoup its costs, once promotional budgets and backend deals for Verbinski, Depp and Bruckheimer are factored in. That seems a nice round number, so I'll stick with it for the following analysis.
First of all, it must be pointed out that only 30 films have grossed $800 million or more worldwide. Compounding matters, since only 11 movies have ever grossed more than $400 million at the domestic box office, "The Lone Ranger" will have to get the majority of its money overseas.
And that brings us back to the fact that westerns simply don't do that well outside the U.S.
Highest Grossing Westerns at the Domestic Box Office
(Domestic Gross as a Percentage of Worldwide Gross)
1. "Dances with Wolves" (1990) - 43.6%
2. "True Grit" (2010) - 68.2%
3. "Rango" (2011) - 50.8%
4. "Wild Wild West" (1999) - 51.2%
5. "Maverick" (1994) - 55.5%
6. "Unforgiven" (1992) - 63.9%
7. "Back to the Future Part III" (1990) - 35.9%
8. "Cowboys & Aliens" (2011) - 90.5%*
9. "Brokeback Mountain" (2005) - 46.6%
10. "Open Range" (2003) - 85.6%
*Cowboys & Aliens has not yet opened in most overseas markets yet.
With the exception of "Back to the Future Part III," which was an established comedy franchise long before Marty McFly landed in the Old West, not one of the top 10 earned less than 43 percent of its total gross at the domestic box office.
Compare that with the highest grossing films of 2011 so far, of which only three earned a total of $800 million.
Highest Grossing Films of 2011 at the Worldwide Box Office
(Domestic Gross as a Percentage of Worldwide Gross)
1. "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2" ($1.217 billion) - 29.5%
2. "Transformers: Dark of the Moon" ($1.082 billion) - 32.1%
3. "Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides" ($1.038 billion) - 23.1%
4. "Kung Fu Panda 2" ($616 million) - 26.5%
5. "Fast Five" ($605 million) - 34.7%
The average domestic gross percentage among the top 10 westerns--excluding "Cowboys & Aliens"--is 55.7 percent. If you don't include "Back to the Future," that jumps to 58.18 percent.
Among the highest grossing films of 2011, the average was 29.18 percent. (And just so I'm not accused of comparing apples to oranges, a list of the top five grossing films of 2011 at the domestic box office replaces "Kung Fu Panda 2" with "The Hangover Part II," which had an above average domestic percentage of 43.8 percent. Even if you factored that in, the average percentage of worldwide box office to domestic box office is 32.64 percent.)
If "The Lone Ranger" kept to the top grossing western average of 55.7 percent, it would need to gross $445.6 million at the domestic box office to reach a total of $800 million worldwide, which would make it the fifth highest grossing domestic film in history behind "Avatar," "Titanic," "The Dark Knight" and "Star Wars." It would also be $261 million more than the highest grossing western of all time.
And don't forget that six of the top 10 grossing films domestically and seven of the top 10 worldwide are sequels, something "The Lone Ranger" cannot boast.
Unless "The Lone Ranger" is able to break multiple records by a lot, a $220 million-plus western simply doesn't make sense, despite the personnel involved.
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